Here is Scott's presentation from Measurecamp Sydney 2016. The talk introduces some of the mathematics behind attribution and in particular the "random" factors that cannot be accounted for under any model. These factos could be anything - frokm word of mouth, the weather, or whether said user was having a bad day (or set of days!) or not.
The talk then delves into the guts of the presentation - introducing the thoughts of 3 military writers/commenders: Sun Tzu, Carl Von Clasewitz and Donald Rumsfeld. Using the learnings from these and other commanders - the talk describes spefic military tactics that are applicable to marketing strategy.
Attribution, Competition and Military Tactics in Digital Marketing